The phrase "technological unemployment" was popularised by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s, who said it was "only a temporary phase of maladjustment". Yet the issue of machines displacing human labour has been discussed since at least Aristotle's time. Schumpeter coined the term ‘creative destruction’ to emphasize how paradigm changes resulted in new goods and processes that didn’t compete with the existing goods at the margin but resulted in the destruction of the existing goods and processes. To illustrate this, Schumpeter gave the example of introduction of railways resulting in the destruction of stage coaches, and the introduction of steam power resulting in the sharp decline of artisans. However, despite the destruction of some industries, the change brought about with it, a sharp decline in the prices of the goods, in particular, textiles, clothing and consumer durables that were earlier produced by artisans. The sharp decline in prices made these goods to come within the reach of the middle and lower middle-income groups. This led to a rapid expansion of the market and as a whole, employment had increased. One can also observe a similar experience when it comes to the recent example wherein banking, travel and insurance were computerised and there were protests from trade unions fearing unemployment.
Having said that, what technological upheavals can one expect in the future? Genomics, artificial intelligence, robotics and cloud computing are already taking off across all spheres. And they are likely to affect all sectors – health, medicine, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and financial intermediation. This is one of the reasons for not terming the current revolution as industrial revolution as it was the case earlier. As discussed before, all technological revolutions bring about its share of beneficiaries and victims. Autor (2015) argues that computers cannot perform abstract tasks and professionals and persons performing personal services will not be adversely affected. Furthermore, currently collaborative efforts are assuming importance and they need human interactions and cannot be handled by machines. His evidence suggests that technology has boosted the output of the professionals and the demand for their services have increased. He cites the examples of health care, law, finance, engineering, research and design. Likewise, the demand for manual task intensive occupations will also increase resulting in societal income. However, there will be turmoil in the middle level jobs and that would require policy intervention.
Frey and Osborne (2017) also predict loss of low and medium low skilled jobs, based on an in-depth study of probability of computerisation of 702 detailed occupations drawing upon recent advances of ‘Machine Learning’ and ‘Mobile Robotics’ forecast that about 47 per cent of US employment are in the high-risk category of job losses. Unlike earlier studies that predicted computerisation in mainly routine tasks, this study argues that non-routine tasks like legal writing and track driving would also be automated soon. The study draws on recent developments in skills like machine learning, including data mining, machine vision, computational statistics and artificial intelligence. They suggest that as technology forges ahead workers should relocate from low skilled jobs to tasks that are not susceptible to computerisation like jobs that require creative and social intelligence. This would require skill up-gradation and massive retraining.
The UNCTAD Policy Brief (2016) mentions the increasing use of Robots in the manufacturing sector and its implications for employment. And it appears that the introduction of robots is not necessarily led by capital rich and labour scarce developed countries. Rather, it is the labour rich countries like China which are in the lead. The Policy Brief presents their estimates of year-end operational stock of industrial robots for select countries and regions for the period 2013 – 2918. In their estimate China leads with more than 600,000 units of industrial robots, followed by Republic of Korea and Japan – both less than 300,000 robots each. The whole of Europe and North America (United States and Canada put together) will have only about 300,000 robots. Other Asian countries, that is, excluding China, Korea and Japan will also have about 200,000 robots. South America and Africa will have negligible quantity of Robots. Thus, the Asian countries will be dominating in the production and the use of Robots. China, in particular, has started using Robots in textiles and garments sectors.
UNCTAD Policy Brief (2016) in the concluding part clearly states that the digital revolution cannot be stopped and hence it is important for the developing countries to take appropriate steps so that they benefit. To achieve this, the developing countries should embrace the digital revolution and redesign their educational system. Heavy investments in education and human resource development are important. Once human and ICT infrastructure is created, developing countries would develop an advantage in combining robots and three-dimensional printing. China is already doing this in a big scale.
One such field that India can take advantage of is Quantum computers, which are likely to emerge in a decade or two. They will revolutionize the Information Technology sector and India has a good opportunity to participate and benefit by contributing to the production of both hardware and software. The current computer technology is based on 2-digit bit configuration while the quantum computer is based on 3-digit configuration. In effect there will be a movement from BIT to QUBIT. India could also enter the hardware market. Currently the Indian share in the hardware market is not significant. However, India could leapfrog to the future technological world. It is important to train the technologists in quantum physics and its computer applications.
Changes in solar energy has also been rapid. Bulky and unwieldy inefficient solar panels are now being replaced by thin-film panels. These are also more efficient in converting solar energy to power. Quantum dots are also likely to emerge. and are labour intensive in their operations and India can exploit that. Three-dimensional printing is another area where India could benefit. At present it is mainly used in biomedical devices such as surgical planning, prosthetics and applications. It is likely to spread to other sectors soon. The process is labour intensive and Indian workers could be trained in this area.
Lecturer: Dr. N. Siddharthan | Access link to presentation file
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